It is a certainty that Sarawak will hold its 13th state election by the end of this year to elect a new members of the State Legislative Assembly (SLA). It goes without saying.
The current term of the SLA expires in February next year.
If it is not dissolved earlier, the SLA will automatically dissolve itself upon the expiry date and after which election must be called within 60 years to elect a new set of SLMs. This is what is mandated under the State Constitution.
The October 12-21 sitting of the current term of the SLA may be its last before the state election is called.
In the last state election, polling day took place on Dec 18 2021. The previous assembly was dissolved on Nov 3, 2021.
If it is not due to the expiry, the ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) has no major reasons to call for the election. The coalition is fundamentally strong and stable. Sarawak's economy is robust.
Generally speaking, the business community has no reason to be unhappy and so are the ordinary rakyat. In other words, GPS has done its best for Sarawak and its people.
Some political pundits have analyzed that it would not be surprising if the ruling GPS sweeps almost the 82 state seats up for grabs.
So there is no cause for concern for them.
The opposition parties, on the other hand, are weak, except for the state DAP whose presence is only felt in the urban areas, like Kuching and Sibu. Parti Bumi Kenyalang, Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak and even PKR are not likely to pose a strong challenge to the GPS.
December is a good time to hold the state election. It is forecast to be a dry month, unlike in the previous years.
According to a forecast by the MetMalaysia and quoted by Sarawak Disaster Management Committee, El Nino phenomenon is expected to persist until February 2027, causing hot and dry conditions in Satawak and other parts of Southeast Asia.
If the forecast is accurate, then November right to January next year will be "dry" months.
After studying all the factors into consideration, it is possible that Premier Abang Johari Openg may then advise the Sarawak Governor to dissolve SLA in the third quarter of November.
The dissolution likely comes after PBB Southern Zone special convention has taken place on November 15, 2026 in Kuching.
The southern zone convention is the last to be organised by PBB after the ones held in central region, Betong and northern region this year. These special conventions were directed to be organised by the party convention held on Feb 14-16 this year.
Allowing all parties to prepare themselves, the Election Commission (EC) is likely to fix one of the days in the third quarter of December as a polling day.
Holding the state election in December (a month which is supposed to be the wettest month of the year) is nothing new.
The first was held on December 28 and 29, 1983 with a nomination date December 8 1983.
So, are we expecting to go to the polls in the third quarter of December?
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