Is Mawan that popular in Saratok? But in GE13, he lost in Krian, but won more votes in Kalaka

By James Bujang, a political analyst

Many supporters of Tan Sri William Mawan Ikom are still hoping that he will be asked to defend Saratok for the Barisan Nasional in the 14th general election.

Tan Sri William Mawan

This is despite the announcement by Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari Tun Openg that the Sarawak BN will not put direct candidates for GE14.

Mawan, if he is again picked by the BN to defend his Saratok seat, will contest as a direct candidate since he does not belong to any component party.

As a direct candidate, he will enjoy the same support, privileges and the use of BN machinery like any candidate fielded by the component parties.

Mawan himself should know. He was one of the BN's direct candidates put up by the Sarawak BN in the 2016 state election for the Pakan seat.

For the coming GE14, his supporters are pushing for his candidacy, hoping that he is a second time lucky.

They claim that Mawan is very popular with the voters of  Sararok. Therefore, he is in a better position to retain the seat for the BN. This, of course, is being disputed by those who want him replaced.

The anti-Mawan group points out that Mawan lost in the Iban-majority Krian seat to PKR's Ali Biju in GE13. But he won most of the Malay votes in Kalaka. These two state seats made up the Saratok parliamentary constituency. With more votes obtained from Kalaka, Mawan defeated Ali in Saratok.

It is safe to assume that Mawan does not command the majority support of the Iban voters in Saratok, contrary to what is being claimed by his supporters.

To say that the Malay support for the BN will be eroded or reduced if Mawan is not asked to defend Saratok is a fake news. Regardless of who the BN puts in Saratok, the Malays will throw their support. To suggest otherwise, I think,  is rather politically unwise and amateur.

The Malays are known for being fiercely loyal to BN - a fact that is not disputable. Their support is through PBB - the lynch-pin of Sarawak politics.

In the 2013 general election, Mawan won with a majority of 2081 votes when he obtained 11,600 votes against 9519 secured by Ali.

Most of the votes for Mawan came from Kalaka while Ali won more votes from Krian.

Out of  27, 562 registered voters in Saratok in 2013, the Ibans made up 49%, the Malays 44% and Chinese, 7 %.

In the 2008 general election, Jelaing Mersat won in Saratok with a majority of 8,706 votes. He polled 12, 470 votes against 3,764 votes obtained by Mohd Yahya Abdullah of PKR.

Based on the margin of majority, Jelaing had won by 8,706 votes against 2081 for Mawan. In terms of votes obtained, Jelaing had 12,470 votes while Mawan had 11,600 votes.

In 2013, there were 27,562 registered voters while in 2008, there were 23,982 registered voters.

Based on the number of registered voters in 2013 and 2008, Mawan should have polled more votes if he was popular with the voters as his supporters had claimed, but he did not.

In the final analysis, Mawan could only win in GE14 if he can get substantial number of Iban votes while at the same time, he gets 80 to 90 % of the Malay votes.

BN, however, should not underestimate Ali, if he is to be fielded by PKR again, to cause an upset in Saratok.  That is if Mawan is BN's pick for Saratok.

And BN should not forget PDP members who may switch support for PKR, instead of voting for Mawan.