An analysis by Simon Peter
Supporters of Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Opposition and watchers must be focusing their eyes on a number of State Legislative Assembly (SLA) seats with keen interest.
These seats are on the borderline, meaning that they can go either way, more so with the huge increase in the number of new voters.
The winners of those seats won with a slim majority in the Dec 18 2021 state election. So, they have every reason to be anxious, perhaps with their hearts beating faster.
If the voters appreciate the winners' services rendered over the last five years, so they have little to worry about. Otherwise, they will have difficulty sleeping at night.
We can name 13 seats that are won with a narrow or slim majority. In the coming state election, we will see if these seats will change hands or remain where they are.
Heading the list is Tanjung Batu which was won by Johnny Phang (GPS-SUPP) with a majority of 33 votes in a six-cornered contest. He edged his nearest rival Chiew Chan Yew (DAP). He polled 4092 votes compared to 4069 votes that Chiew garnered. The voter turnout was 51.38 per cent. Phang could be in danger of losing the seat if there is a substantial swing in the number of votes or he can retain the seat if the new voters back him to remain.
Batu Lintang was retained by incumbent See Chew How (PSB) with a majority of 93 votes in a five-cornered fight. Chee How edged his nearest rival Sii Hua Tong (GPS-SUPP). Chee How polled 4,429 votes against 4,327 votes obtained by Sii.
The voter turnout was low at 42.1 per cent. Let's see if Chee How can retain the seat which he has won in the previous three state elections. Or will he be nominated to contest on GPS ticket?
Michael Tiang Ming Tee (GPS-SUPP) managed to capture Pelawan with a slim majority of 100 votes in a five-cornered battle. He polled 4,413 votes compared to 4,313 votes obtained by his nearest rival David Wong Kee Woan (DAP).
The voter turnout was rather low at 47.30 per cent. Tiang has every reason to be anxious. The seat can go either way. With the new voters casting their votes for the first time, it is 50:50 chance he can retain the seat.
Incumbent Francis Harden Hollis(GPS-SUPP) retained his Simangggang seat with a majority of 175 votes in a four-cornered contest. Francis polled 3,954 votes against his nearest rival Wilson Entabang (PSB) who secured 3,779 votes.
The voter turnout was 62.27 per cent. Francis has to work harder, even if there is no formidable in sight at the moment. In the 2021, he had to face PSB. But since PSB is dead now, Francis can just manage to go through. PBDS may field a candidate to challenge him. At the moment, we cannot fathom PBDS real strength on the ground.
Incumbent Anyi Jana (GPS-PRS) managed to win Ngemah with a majority of 261 votes in a five-cornered fight. He garnered 3,193 votes against his nearest rival Joseph Jawa Kendawang (PSB) who secured 2,932 votes. The voter turnout was high at 71.50 per cent. He is in a precarious position. Whether he will be renominated by his party, PRS, is a huge question mark. He is one of three incumbent SLMSs named as by PRS vice president Wilson Ugak to be replaced.
Pending was retained by Violet Yong (DAP) with a majority of 544 votes. She secured 5,188 votes compared to 4,648 votes obtained by her nearest rival Milton Foo Tiang Wee (GPS-SUPP). The voter turnout was rather low at 45.02 per cent. Pending is a highly urbanised constituency and it is a big wonder why the low voter turnout. DAP is in danger of losing Pending if there is a big swing in the number of votes. But to unseat Violet, GPS-SUPP would need to field someone who can match Violet's standing, not any random candidate who has little chance of winning. Perhaps, Milton could be renominated to face Violet for the third time.
Batu Danau was retained by Paulus Palu Gumbang (GPS-PBB) with a majority of 706 votes in a four-cornered fight. He garnered 3,030 votes against 2,324 votes obtained by his nearest rival Ali Adap (PSB). The voter turnout was 61.78 per cent. There are speculations that Paulus may be replaced with a just-retired senior civil servant.
Pakan was retained by William Mawan Ikom (GPS-PBB) with a majority of 714 votes in a five-cornered battle. Mawan obtained 3,268 votes compared to 2,554 votes polled by his nearest rival Jamal Abdullah @ Tedong Chakaw @ Gunda (Independent). The voter turnout was 72.25 per cent. As far as Pakan is concerned, Mawan is safe. There is nothing for him to worry about.
Batang Ai was retained by Malcolm Malcom Mussen Lamoh (GPS-PRS) with a majority of 738 votes in a four-cornered battle. He polled 3,208 votes against 2,470 votes by his nearest rival John Linang Mereen (Independent).
The voter turnout was 73.29 per cent. Malcolm can retain the seat if there are no sabotages by his political rivals within GPS.
Meluan was retained by incumbent Rolland Duat Jubin with a majority of 822 votes in a three-cornered contest. He polled 5,269 votes compared to 4,447 votes by Elly Lawai Ngalai (PSB). The voter turnout was 68.39 per cent. For Rolland to retain the seat, he needs to get the support of PRS, PBB and even PBM. PBM president Larry Sng, the MP for Julau, has a great influence in Meluan, being of the two state constituencies under Julau parliamentary constituency. If PBM decides to put a candidate in Meluan, Rolland will have a hard time. The support for PSB in 2021 does not necessary goes to Rolland this time around.
Bukit Assek was captured by Chieng Jin Ek (GPS-SUPP) with a majority of 874 votes in a six-cornered battle. Chieng obtained 4,684 votes compared to 3,810 votes garnered by his nearest rival Irene Chang (DAP).
The voter turnout was low at 49.29 per cent. Bukit Assek is one of the Chinese-majority constituencies that is being closely monitored. It all depends on how Chieng can woo the new voters. Bukit Assek is a 50:50 seat, meaning Chieng can retain the seat or the DAP can wrest it back from him.
Senior politician Wong Soon Koh (PSB) retained his Bawang Assan seat with a majority of 913 votes in a five-cornered contest. Wong secured 5,952 votes compared to 5,039 votes obtained by his nearest rival Robert Lau (GPS-SUPP).
The voter turnout was 71 per cent. SUPP is on the warpath, trying to put its candidate to contest in Bawang Assan on GPS ticket. In fact, SUPP has publicly named its Youth chief as a potential candidate. Even if Wong gets to be nominated again by GPS, it cannot be denied that SUPP people may not support him. The same goes if SUPP manages to get its man to contest in Bawang Assan, PDP supporters may not give their support as well. Bawang Assan is one of the urban seats that both SUPP and PDP have been fighting about. The SUPP-PDP rivalry over Bawang Assan may actually benefit DAP.
Krian was won by Friday Belik (GPS-PDP) with a majority of 932 votes in a three-cornered fight. He beat his nearest rival Musa Dinggat (PSB) who secured 2,953 votes. The voter turnout was 69.08 per cent. The key to Friday retaining the seat is Saratok MP Ali Biju. Ali gave way to Friday in 2021 although he had submitted his name to contest in Krian. His name had been accepted by the Election Commission as a legal candidate. Ali is a rather quiet person, but is a popular politician in Saratok and respected by the Malays, Chinese and Ibans. Will he be contesting in Krian on Parti Primbumi Malaysia Bersatu (Bersatu) ticket? If he decides to contest, Friday is in danger of losing the seat.
Apart from these 13 seats, the focus is also on a few seats. The seats include Padungan, Pelagus and Baleh.
Padungan was won by Sarawak DAP chairman Chong Chieng Jen with a majority of 1,198 votes, beating his nearest rival Wee Hong Seng (GPS-SUPP) in a four-cornered fight. Chong secured 4,686 votes against 3,488 votes that Wee secured.
What makes this result interesting is the low voter turnout, registering 44.76 per cent. It must be remembered that the Dec 18 2021 election was held almost immediately after the movement control order (MCO), imposed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, was lifted.
We may see a repeat of Chong vs Wee in the coming election. Mayor Wee has been actively moving on the ground since the last state election.
Internal squabbles could see PRS losing Pelagus and Baleh. There were reports to say that the party may not renominate incumbents Wilson Nyabong (Pelagus) and Nicholas Jantai (Baleh) as candidates to contest on GPS ticket.
Conclusion
Of special interest is that the 2021 Sarawak election was held before the implementation of Undi18 whereby individuals after reaching the age of 18 years old will be automatically registered as voters. Although "Undi18" bill had been gazetted, its implementation was delayed due to technical problems.
Had the youngsters voted, the results of some of the seats could be different. We might see more Opposition State Legislative Members (SLM) elected, instead of six (four from PSB and two from DAP) or we may see the Opposition completely wiped out.
According to 2020 statistics, Senadin had the highest voter increase from 34,274 to 67,904, followed by Tupong (from 26,120 to 51,335), Lambir (19,911 to 38,277), Dudong (35,061 to 52,062), Kota Sentosa (28,355 to 45,422), Batu Kawa (20,719 to 37,765), Pantai Damai (20,578 to 37,527), Batu Lintang (29,735 to 46,150), Pujut (27,593 to 43,774), and Samariang (21,438 to 37,609).
Other state constituencies had also registered an increase in the number of new voters.
