Recently, PKR Sarawak chairman Ahmad Nazib Johari had told party members to prepare for the coming state election, which may be held before or at the end of this year.
His reminder to the party members or aspiring candidates is a natural thing to do otherwise, they would be caught unprepared.
I am not a prophet of doom. I can say for sure that PKR Sarawak will not win a single seat in the upcoming Sarawak state election, even if it makes early preparation.
There is no reason why the people of Sarawak should vote for the party that has lost much of its appeal to the Sarawak voters, especially with the departure of former chairman Baru Bian, vice chairman See Chee How, Ali Biju,Willie Mongin, Baharudin Mokhsen and his sister Norhanim, Voon Shiak Ni and Norina Utot.
Based on past elections, PKR Sarawak will likely field its candidates in Malay and Dayak constituencies while its Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) partner, DAP Sarawak will contest in urban and semi-urban constituencies.
DAP Sarawak has always been looked upon as a Chinese party, so that explains why it is eyeing the urban and semi-urban seats where the majority of the voters are ethnic Chinese.
It goes without saying that it is almost impossible for PKR Sarawak to win in Malay constituencies in the state election.
PBB is too strong and will not be shackled by the presence of PKR Sarawak. The Malay voters, being the backbone of PBB, will certainly not vote for any other party.
Even when the party was “formidable” under Baru then, it still could not grab a single PBB state seat.
It is safe to assume that under the present state leadership, the chance of PKR Sarawak winning a single seat in the coming election is simply zero.
I am not exaggerating or being too pessimistic. It is simply that the Malay voters will still back Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS). There is simply no reason for them to support other parties.
I would say that PKR Sarawak’s chances in Dayak areas are equally bleak. It has lost its grassroots support since the Dayak leaders in the party left.
There is no Dayak leader whom the Dayaks can look upon to give support to PKR Sarawak. Many of the Dayak leaders and members have either joined Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS) or component parties of GPS, such as Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) or Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) or simply quit politics altogether.
Under Baru’s leadership, native customary rights (NCR) land became the focal point of PKR Sarawak’s political battle.
This had attracted large number of Dayaks to rally behind the party in Sarawak. During Taib Mahmud administration, disputes between the Dayak NCR landowners and plantation companies were widespread throughout the state.
Over 200 cases were filed with the High Court registry by the Dayak landowners through Baru legal firm. It was Baru and Chee How, who represented the landowners, fought the court battles against the state government and plantation companies.
In most cases, they won in the Court.
It is not known what the present PKR Sarawak’s leadership is championing about.
Following major disagreement with PKR president Anwar Ibrahim, Baru left PKR and months later, he joined Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) and when PSB was dissolved, he joined Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), a component party of GPS.
Ali Biju, Saratok MP. and Willie Mongin, Puncak Borneo MP, left PKR to join Parti Pribumi Malaysia Bersatu (Bersatu). While Ali remains in Bersatu, Willie left to join PBB.
Those Dayak leaders who are still with PKR Sarawak include Roland Engan (appointed national PKR vice president) and Senator Abun Sui Anyit.
While Roland and Abun may have some influence among the Orang Ulu community, they do not command broad support from other Dayak communities, notably the Iban and Bidayuh communities.
Generally speaking, it is tough for PKR Sarawak to win the majority support of the Orang Ulu community.
Gerawat Gala (Mulu), Dennis Ngau (Telang Usan), Baru Bian (Ba’Kelalan), Kennedy Chupkai (Murum) and Liwan Lagang (Belaga) are formidable state legislative members (SLMs) and, therefore, they are difficult for PKR Sarawak to unseat.
In other words, PKR Sarawak can nominate candidates to challenge the incumbents, but do not place too much hope.
Will the national PKR leaders, including Prime Minister Anwar, come and support their candidates in the Sarawak election?
This is a big question mark.
If Anwar wants to value and maintain his “good” relationship with GPS leaders, including Premier Abang Johari Openg, he will not come.
Moreover, GPS is part of the Madani government. It must be remembered that Anwar became prime minister, largely with the support of GPS.
But then, from now until polling day, anything can happen.
We cannot place too much expectation that the national PKR leaders would not come to lend support to the party candidates.
Last year’s Sabah state election should be a good lesson for the national leaders from PKR and DAP to ponder about.
While PKR just managed to win a single seat, DAP Sabah was completely wiped out in the Sabah election.
It could well be happening in Sarawak. This is because, apart from the local sentiment, GPS is solid and strong.
With issues surrounding the legal battle between Petros vs Petronas, demands under Malaysia Agreement 1963 have not been fully met, accusation of unfair treatment towards Sarawak, GPS will be in a strong position to win most, if not all, the 82 seats (assuming that the additional 17 seats have not been endorsed by the Parliament) in the next election.
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